58% in AP say Naxalism is good, finds TOI poll
India’s biggest internal security threat, as the Prime Minister
famously described it, may be worse than you thought. That’s because
even in Andhra Pradesh, where the battle against the Maoists has
apparently been won, it turns out that the government is losing the
battle for the minds and hearts of the people. It’s a debate that’s been
raging within the Congress, and outside it. Should the government adopt
a largely law-and-order attitude towards the Maoists and deal with them
like criminals or should the focus be more on cutting the ground from
under their feet through a development agenda that wins over the
population of the affected areas? An exclusive survey of the once
Maoist-dominated districts of the Telengana region by IMRB, well-known
market research organisation, for The Times of India has found that
while attitudes towards the rebels are ambivalent, the condemnation of
the government and its means of tackling the problem is quite clear. The
findings raise disturbing questions about whether focusing largely on
the policing aspects of the problem may be a flawed strategy in the long
run.
They also throw up another poser: Has the battle in AP truly been won
or can the Maoists stage a comeback in a few years? Tied to this is the
question of how the Maoists are viewed by the populace of these parts.
Are they perceived essentially as a bloodthirsty, extortionist bunch or
as rebels standing up for people’s rights? TOI decided to do an opinion
poll of the affected areas to find out. The problem, however, was that
this was a region where pollsters found very difficult to enter. We
finally decided to conduct the survey in those areas of Andhra Pradesh
which were till not too long ago strongholds of the Naxalites but where
their activities have been checked.
The survey was conducted, therefore, in five districts of the
Telengana region Adilabad, Nizamabad, Karimnagar, Warangal and Khammam.
These districts were chosen not only because they were till recently
severely Naxal-affected, but also because of their proximity to current
hotbeds in Chattisgarh and Maharashtra. To tap into the mood of the aam
admi in these areas, the survey was restricted to the not so well off
socio-economic categories, SEC B and SEC C and to men and women between
the ages of 25 and 50. What we found has come as an eye-opener for us
and should be worrying for everybody. The state may have won the battle
of the guns, but the Maoists are clearly ahead in the perception game.
This is particularly true in the districts of Warangal and Nizamabad as
the accompanying charts show only too clearly. The root cause of the
disaffection is the overwhelming feeling of neglect of the areas by the
government. About two-thirds expressed this view and in Warangal the
figure was as high as 81%. That, you might say, is hardly alarming.
Similar figures would probably be thrown up anywhere in India. True.
But when two-thirds also say that the Maoists are right in choosing
the methods they have to highlight the neglect, it is difficult to
dismiss it as normal. Perhaps the most revealing answers are in response
to questions on whether the Maoists — still better known as Naxalites
in this belt — were good or bad for the region and whether their defeat
by the AP police has made matters better or worse. Almost 60% said the
Naxalites were good for the area and only 34% felt life had improved
since they were beaten back. As for whether exploitation has increased
after the Naxalite influence waned, 48% said it had against 38% who said
it hadn’t, the rest offering no opinion. Those answers are buttressed
by the responses to three other questions. The first of these was on
whether the characterization of the Naxals as extortionists and mafia
was accurate. Two-thirds disagreed. An elaboration of this came in
response to a slightly more open-ended question.
Over half said the Naxalites worked for the good of the area, another
one-third said they had the right intentions but the wrong means. Only
15% were willing to describe them as just goondas. Equally importantly,
50% of the respondents felt the Naxalites had forced the government to
focus on development work in the affected areas. What these responses
show is just how negative the perception of the government is in these
parts. That the people here are not entirely comfortable with Naxalite
methods is also quite clear.
Even a question on what explained their strength in these parts
showed that very few attributed it to popularity alone, a majority
saying either that it was due to fear or that it was a combination of
approval and fear. That despite this ambivalence there is a sympathetic
view of the Naxals only betrays the people’s desperate search for any
means to shake shaking up the state. Given these findings it is hardly
surprising that killings by Maoists are looked upon more leniently than
those by the government and that the state’s claims about encounters are
viewed with extreme suspicion. The government may say, and with some
justification, that the Maoists represent the biggest threat to India’s
internal security, but what this poll shows is that the aam admi in
these parts views government apathy as the biggest threat to his
wellbeing. The towns in which the poll was conducted were Kamareddy in
Nizamabad district, Gudi Hathnoor in Adilabad, Sirsilla in Karimnagar,
Mahbubabad in Warangal and Palwancha in Khammam. A total of 521 people
were polled in these five towns, a statistically robust sample size.
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