10 September 2012. A World to Win News Service. The twelfth summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO)
took place in Beijing in June. The SCO is a regional organization comprising
China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan as full
members, and Mongolia, Iran, India and Pakistan as observers (Afghanistan was
admitted as an observer in this year's summit). The most important feature of
this year's meeting was its strong position against "external" intervention and
regime-change attempts in the Middle Eastern countries, a clear reference to
Syria and Iran.
The summit was intended to be a show of unity and
success, demonstrating its members' common interests and concerns regarding
world and regional political affairs, while insisting that the SCO is not a
military bloc.
The group pledged to work more closely with the Afghan
government on security and other issues, without providing details. The
meeting's main emphasis was on ''regional security", laying out a plan for the
strategic and medium-term development of the SCO and a "Mechanism of Response to
Events Jeopardizing Regional Peace, Security and Stability". (7 June 2012,
Eurasianet.org)
Following this summit the SCO began carrying out joint
military exercises in Tajikistan. According to the press centre of Tajikistan
Ministry, "During the exercises, a special anti-terror operation in a
mountainous area will be worked on. New methods will be used to detect, block
and destroy mock outlawed armed formations that have captured a mountain
village”. About 2,000 soldiers and 500 military vehicles and aircraft from
Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan took part in this annual
military exercise.
It
was named "Peace Mission". But there are good reasons to doubt that the goal of
these operations were peaceful, since they took place as part of a series of
military movements and manoeuvres in the region. Furthermore, when placed in the
context of world politics as they manifest themselves in this region, and other
events over the last two decades, even more doubts arise.
In
mid-April 2012, U.S. and Filipino joint military exercises also included troops
from Australia, Japan, South Korea, Indonesia and Malaysia. About 4,500 U.S.
Marines participated along with 2,500 Philippines Special Forces. The U.S. also
held what it called a "Naval Exchange" with Vietnam, a country whose sea forces
have been engaged in a face-off with China over competing territorial claims in
the South China Sea. This area is rich in gas and oil reserves as well as being
strategically sensitive for China. Much of the world's imported energy and raw
materials pass through these shipping lanes. In a policy shift, last November
Obama declared that the U.S. would focus on the Asia-Pacific region as its top
strategic priority. China and Russia also held joint naval exercises in the
Yellow Sea, practising defending sea lanes.
There are more large-scale military activities to come.
Another major regional organization, called the Collective Security Treaty
Organisation (CSTO, consisting of Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – Uzbekistan suspended its membership in June this
year), is holding military manoeuvres this September in Armenia and October in
Kazakhstan. The details and dimensions have not been announced, but last
September's CSTO military exercise involved 24,000 troops and was designed to
counter an assumed threat from Afghanistan, where over 100,000 Nato soldiers
were stationed at the time.
Some observers have wondered why Armenia was chosen as
the battleground of the next CSTO military exercise. First of all, the CSTO
should be seen in light of Russia's desire to re-extend its influence southward
into central Asia and Afghanistan, and its concern for American efforts to
snatch up what Russia has historically considered its "backyard". Further,
selecting Armenia as a practice "battleground" could be related to U.S.-Israeli
threats to attack Iran. Armenia and neighbouring Azerbaijan have fought over the
disputed territory of Nagorno-Karabakh. The U.S. and Israel are seeking to turn
Azerbaijan into a military base for a possible attack on Iran, and already have
unlimited access to its territory, including its airports and Caspian Sea ports.
This puts the U.S. military very close to the Iranian border. Azerbaijan is
acquiring a $1.3 billion air-defence system from Israel. Recently the old wounds
of the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia have reopened and military activities
on both sides have increased.
The emergence of the Shanghai Cooperation
Organisation
The SCO came out of the "Shanghai Five", a grouping
formed in 1996 to resolve border issues between China, Russia, Kazakhstan,
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. For China as well as the Central Asian countries, the
border disputes and the rise of separatists, national movements and Islamic
fundamentalist movements in most of the central Asian countries and Xingjian
(China) had became a security issue. Developments in Tibet were another factor
in creating concerns for China.
At
the July 2000 summit where Putin attended for the first time, the leaders of the
countries involved announced that this organisation must "wield significant
influence not just in the region, but globally as well." (Eurasianet.org, 2
September 2008)
At
the 2001 summit, with Uzbekistan also participating, the Shanghai Five was
transformed into the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. SCO's stated aim was to
combat "terrorism, separatism and extremism" as well as promote various forms of
cooperation. Russia tried to use SCO and other treaties to limit U.S. and other
Western influences in Central Asia and advance its own interests in the
region.
After the end of the Cold War and the disintegration of
the Soviet bloc, the U.S. emerged as the lone imperialist superpower and did its
best to take advantage of the situation and secure its domination over the world
for a long period to come. Other Western imperialists and powerful states have
also been trying to use this turbulent period to their advantage. Consequently
the collapse of the Soviet bloc gave rise to some more regional contradictions
and conflicts, in some cases very violently, such as the various Balkan wars.
This situation was also reflected in the U.S. invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq.
By
invading and occupying Afghanistan, the U.S. and other Western imperialists were
attempting to broaden their influence in the region too. So they had one eye on
the Middle East and the other on Central and South-East Asia.
In
association with this invasion the U.S. set up military bases in Uzbekistan and
Kyrgyzstan. These advances in the region were taken as an attempt to encircle
Russia and made China very uncomfortable too. The Central Asian regimes, partly
under pressure from Russia and partly to protect themselves from the Islamic
fundamentalists and rise of armed oppositions, felt compelled to stick to the
organisation.
During this period, U.S. imperialist policy was the main
driving force, although all the imperial powers were trying to safeguard and
advance their interests. The world and the configuration of imperialist
coalitions changed dramatically between the two wars against Iraq. (Although it
is very unlikely that the U.S. could have launched its 1991 war if the Soviet
Union had not already been in the throes of
collapse.)
The rise of China as an aggressive power following the
overthrow of socialism there and the resurgence of Russian imperialism out of
the ashes of the imperialist Soviet bloc (where capitalism had been effectively
restored two decades earlier, despite the retaining of socialist forms) are two
of the most important features marking the past quarter century. The grouping of
these two giants together with other countries in the SCO is, so far, the most
serious attempt to challenge U.S. influence, at least in the region. This could
have been one reason why the American imperialists shifted their attention to
the Asia-Pacific region in order to counter a potential
challenge.
Russia especially has been active over the last two
decades in seeking to curtail further blows to its power and once again
re-emerge if not as a superpower at least as a dominant regional power with more
influence in world affairs.
China's emergence as the world's second-largest economy
should be seen in the context of what kind of economy that is, what logic drives
it. When a new capitalist class took power through a coup after the death of Mao
Tsetung, it became a capitalist economy, driven by the profit motive, the
expand-or-die competition inherent in capitalism and the logic and titanic
forces of the world market, so that its development has brought its thoroughly
capitalist ruling class into conflict with the Western imperialists and other
powers for markets, raw materials and outlets for investment.
Although only about a thousand troops took part in the
SCO's first military exercise, it represented a newly formed treaty that had
been able to unite two powerful countries in Asia with some small but
nevertheless important regional countries. This organisation soon attracted the
interest of reactionary regimes in other countries in the region such as India,
Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, Turkey and Mongolia, and heightened the concerns of
the U.S. and other Western imperialists.
Shortly after its formation the SCO tried to push back
U.S. influence in Central Asia. Following the July 2005 summit, in
a joint declaration it called for an end to U.S. military bases in Central Asia.
The U.S. had to pull all its forces out of Uzbekistan a few months later and
retained its base in Kyrgyzstan only after some political manoeuvring and
agreeing to much higher payments. That same year Iran, Pakistan, and India were
granted observer status, while Mongolia had achieved that status a year earlier.
In 2007, SCO military exercises took place in China and Russia with the
involvement of 6,000 troops.
In
the past decade, the SCO consolidated its position as a military and economic
grouping. This has involved joint military exercises, training programmes and
other measures to modernize the militaries of the member states, and efforts to
draw in other countries in the region and beyond. Apart from military and
security cooperation, there have been mutual multi-billion dollar investments,
particularly by China, in infrastructure (roads, railways, airports,
hydro-electric power stations, mining, gas wells and petroleum pipelines) and
banking (the SCO has an interbank union working alongside Russian-Chinese
investment funds and other forms of investment).
This cooperation has strengthened both Russia and China.
Peking has benefited from the military strength of Russia not only as a partner
but as a source of advanced military hardware and technology to enable China to
produce its own more advanced weapons. One example is the SU-27 fighter, a
variant of a Russian-designed "air superiority fighter" meant to match advanced
U.S. and other Western war planes, now manufactured in China. Russia is also
playing a role in the transformation of the Chinese navy as its mission shifts
from coastline defence to "blue-water" power projection in the western and
southern Pacific.
The relationship with China also strengthens Russia's
position in dealing with the West – in the energy negotiations with the EU and
also missile defence talks with the US.
Both benefit regarding international issues related to
either gaining or preserving spheres of influence. Russia and China have worked
together in opposing U.S. missile "shields" that would lesson the ability to
retaliate against a U.S. first-strike missile attack. Most notably, this
alliance has been a serious factor in rivalry with the U.S. in the Middle East,
particularly Iran and Syria – the Russian and Chinese blockage of the U.S.-led
bid for UN Security Council backing for foreign military intervention in Syria
is the best-known example of this relationship.
China needs the Central Asian and Caspian Sea regions for
strategic energy supplies, too. Two pipelines have been completed, a third is
nearly finished and construction of a fourth will start soon. This allows China
to become less dependent on supplies from the Middle East, where the US
dominates the flow of oil and gas. China has secured a long-term lower price
structure with Central Asian states. It has already began pumping oil in
Afghanistan and has signed contracts that would make China a major competitor
among the various foreign schemes for major mining operations in Afghanistan if
and when political conditions permit.
China’s infrastructural investments in Xingjian and the
passage through there of billions of dollars worth of Chinese consumer goods
exported throughout Central Asia have produced a section of rich and middle
strata in Xingjian, a Western Chinese border region whose population has been
predominantly Turkic Moslem, although China is moving in Han settlers. This has
helped stabilise and strengthened the Chinese regime's rule in that
region.
U.S. imperialism’s certain degree of shift in strategic
policies to put more emphasis on the Asia-Pacific region with the main goal of
limiting China’s influence has, at least temporarily, helped Russia by
encouraging China to incline towards Russia's military
strength.
The SCO's contradictions and limits
Due to these relationships and developments, some reactionary
analysts and the media sometimes describe the SCO as the "Eastern bloc",
"OPEC with nuclear bombs" or the "Nato of the East".
But the cooperation and collaboration among the SCO is
not without constraints. In fact, from the beginning this cooperation has been
paralleled by important contradictions among the participant countries, and some
of these contradictions have grown rather than
diminishing.
If
we look at it from an economic point of view, the SCO's two main powers have
numerous ties with the U.S. and other Western countries. The U.S. is China's
main economic partner. China has trillions of dollars in investments in the
American financial system. The value of China's exchange with Russia is only two
percent of its foreign trade. Further, Russia is not at all happy with China's
inroads in Central Asia. China's lucrative trade, investments, loans and
especially oil and gas contracts could become a problem for Russia, not only
economically, but also because these economic ties could strengthen China's
political reach in a region that Russia intends to
dominate.
Russia, too, is looking toward Western Europe for greatly
increased trade (particularly energy exports) and wants to develop political
ties, especially with Germany, a very important country for Russian imperialist
interests in both economic and political terms. Both China and Russia have
relied to some extent on Europe and the U.S. for developing their own
industries, often with military implications.
There is also a contradiction regarding the SCO's
expansion. Pakistan and India both want closer ties with the SCO. While Russia
might be interested in including India, that would not be welcomed by China due
to their unresolved border issues and rivalry in Asia. China considers India a
main sponsor of disturbances in Tibet. However China might be more interested in
drawing in Pakistan. China supports Pakistan in its border disputes with India.
But including Pakistan or Iran could complicate relations with other countries
too. The SCO's future expansion poses acute problems for the whole organisation,
especially if other big countries like India get involved.
There are also some countries that might not be trusted
by the organisation. For example Turkey has also shown interest in the
organisation but it was only given "dialogue" status. Since Turkey is a Nato
member, it is unlikely to ever be accepted as a full member. The U.S. requested
membership in 2005 but its application was rejected.
While Russia seems to be trying to forge a bloc out of
SCO, considering the organisation's contradictions and Moscow's fear of Chinese
influence and possible dominance over the organisation, that might not be easily
achieved. Russia is also building an alternative to SCO through the CSTO, an
organisation that Russia clearly runs. At present, at least, Russia seems to
regard China as a competitor as well as an ally, and it is not yet clear how
closely they will align. It may be symptomatic of this contradictory situation
that while Russia is helping China expand militarily, it does not seem to be
sharing its most advanced weapons systems, in much the same way as the U.S.
treats certain allies.
Is the SCO challenge
real?
Many imperialist countries have conflicting interests and
are not happy with American unilateral decisions and moves where others have to
follow suit and basically dance to the U.S. tune.
U.S. policy and manoeuvring room has changed from
Afghanistan to Iraq and from Libya to Syria. Its position has been
challenged.
Russia is trying to capitalise on the contradictions
emerging between Western European countries and the U.S., especially Germany.
Russia is also trying to influence Western Europe by supplying gas and oil and
direct it away from U.S. dominance in this market.
The interaction of this emerging rivalry with the ongoing
international financial crisis (for instance, Germany's bid for Chinese
financial support to help shore up the European financial system), and the
possible global consequences for imperialist political stability of popular
unrest and various sorts of uprisings, introduce other elements of uncertainty
into future developments.
The situation is extremely fluid. The challenge is real
but the final position of any of these countries in a future alignment has not
been decided. Certain trends have emerged as the imperialists and other powerful
reactionary-ruled countries vie for influence and domination over the world or
part of the world, but other factors and events could accelerate or decelerate –
or even upend – them.
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