A New Grand Strategy
2014/06/13
"Readjust Transatlantic Relations"
With an article entitled "Europe must readjust its
relations to the USA," published at the beginning of this week in its
online-edition, the German weekly "Die Zeit" opened a fundamental
offensive against the current policy toward Ukraine pursued by the EU
and USA." This article is also remarkable because, until now - as in the
rest of the German mainstream media - anti-Russian commentaries have
prevailed also in this weekly. The online-edition of "Die Zeit" has even
gone to the extent of publicly denouncing one of its free-lance
contributors, who had written several rather differentiated articles for
"Zeit-online," because he had also contributed articles to a journal,
co-financed by Moscow. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[1]) This
article authored by foreign policy expert Chris Luenen differs
considerably from the policy line previously published by the journal.
"Bridgehead" vs. "Exclusion"
In his article on the current debate of the policy to
take toward Ukraine and Russia, Luenen, first of all, describes the
strategic concepts, as Zbigniew Brzezinski - former security advisor for
US President Jimmy Carter and influential still today in the US foreign
policy establishment - had outlined in his 1997 classic "The Grand
Chessboard." According to Brzezinski, Washington uses the EU as an
"essential geopolitical bridgehead to the Eurasian continent," which is
supposed to contribute to the "globalization of a western-style liberal
order" as well as to the "globalization of US hegemonic security for the
global order." Fitting into this concept is the "wish, to integrate
Ukraine into the Euro-Atlantic structures," to be able to expand that
"bridgehead" eastward. At the same time, however, Brzezinski warns of
the "possibility of a major European reorientation," which "could either
lead to a German-Russian arrangement or a French-Russian entente" - and
to "America's exclusion from the [European] continent." Luenen adds
that these apprehensions have worried "Anglo-American strategists since
the days of the British empire," clearly discernable, for example in
"Sir Halford Mackinder's 1904 Heartland Theory," "and apparently still
vibrant today."[2]
The Russian-Chinese-Iranian Alliance
The "decision to expand the Western sphere of
influence eastward, through the EU and NATO's continuous expansion," has
in fact been the most serious "strategic mistake the West has made
since the end of the cold war," says Luenen. This has merely pushed
Russia and Iran "even further into China's arms and into an
anti-hegemonic, anti-western alliance under China's leadership."
However, "a Chinese-Russian-Iranian Alliance" would force the West "to
engage in an even more aggressive foreign policy, to insure its access
to important - but dwindling - raw materials, such as oil, gas and rare
earth." Luenen explains that it is "somewhat easier" to insure Western
interests - obviously meaning also access to "dwindling raw materials" -
by the establishment of a ... strategic partnership with Russia (and
with Iran)." Therefore, it was unadvisable to have provoked Russia by
bringing Ukraine into the Western hegemonic system.
"No Longer Submit to the USA"
Leunen pleads with unusual frankness for a change of
course in global policy. "The EU," he writes, "should no longer submit
to a Made in Washington strategy." Instead, it should "stand up for its
own interests," which it has "always been weak in pursuing." EU
interests would be consistent with the "maintaining and consolidating"
of its "ties with Russia." These are concerns Brussels should urgently
address. Of course, it "naturally also" is necessary for the EU to make
efforts to "maintain," and even
"consolidate a unified and strong West." But with a view toward Russia,
it must pursue "its own interests much more explicitly" - and even show
the USA, "if necessary, clearly where its limits lie." Alongside the
consolidation of cooperation with Moscow - the question revolves around
"redefining transatlantic relations." The EU must ultimately bring to
bear "its own concepts concerning the West's future" as the "basis for
formulating a new and more promising transatlantic grand strategy" - as
others have stated it - but "on an equal footing with the USA."
The Old Pendulum
In German history, the strategy of a sort of pendulum
policy, oscillating between East and West, constantly enhancing one's
own position, extends as far back as the Anglo-American strategists'
anxiety about losing influence on the European continent, which Luenen
mentions. (german-foreign-policy.com reported.[3]) That strategy is
dependent upon maintaining sustainable relations to both centers of
power - Washington and Moscow. Some sectors of Germany's foreign policy
establishment, including individuals within the political entourage of
the "Zeit" weekly, have repeatedly protested against the Berlin
government's current policy toward Ukraine, demanding that the German
special relationship to Moscow be safeguarded. For example, from the
very beginning of the Ukrainian Crisis, German Ministry of Defense's
former Chief of the Planning Staff and current "Editor at Large" of
"Zeit," Theo Sommer, has been raising strong criticism of western
policy.[4] Former SPD Chancellors Helmut Schmidt and Gerhard Schroeder,
as well as the Christian Democrat foreign policy specialist, Philipp
Mißfelder, have been campaigning in favor of maintaining cooperation
with Moscow. In the current
charged atmosphere, in which unequivocally transatlantic oriented
forces are calling the shots of Berlin's foreign policy, the
"Zeit-Online" journal has dared to step forward with an article that
gives voice to the foreign policy establishment's spectrum, which has
traditionally favored a "pendulum policy." Of course, this article is
explicitly noted - arguably as a precautionary measure - as a guest
contribution and the author being an associate, not of a German, but of a
British think tank, has a greater detachment from the domestic German
debate.
"Two Global Policies"
A few months ago, a columnist of the "Frankfurter
Allgemeine Zeitung" had already confirmed that this controversy has been
gaining significance in Berlin for quite a while. In reference to
efforts to continue close cooperation with Russia, he wrote, "the future
global constellation being sought in Berlin is one that will be
multi-polar, in which the EU is economically tightly knit with Russia,
in an effort to be able
to compete with the USA and China on the global market. Washington's
approaches will be constantly scrutinized to see if they are in Europe's
best interests. ... The same is also true in the Ukrainian Crisis,
where some in Berlin are insinuating that Washington cannot wait to
impose sanctions, because they possibly will prove to be more of a
detriment to Europe than to the USA - not only economically but
geostrategically as well."[5] The author, who favors a traditional
transatlantic policy, explained that in Berlin, there are different
concepts for securing German power in the global struggle - "two global
policies."
Global Policy Campaign
Germany's foreign policy establishment is persistently
pursuing its campaign for a more aggressive German global policy. The
campaign - which the German President has repeatedly revived with
demands for an expansion of German military missions and is supported by
major media organs - has not made
much headway. A recent opinion poll indicates that a majority in the
German population favors discretion in foreign policy, while a mere 13
percent is in favor of new German military missions.
(german-foreign-policy.com reported.[1]) However, the political
establishment insists. Last week, two party-affiliated foundations - the
Green Party-affiliated Heinrich Boell Foundation and the CDU-affiliated
Konrad Adenauer Foundation - lent their support by holding conferences
with prominent guests.
Hard Security Policy Factors
Last Monday, the Konrad Adenauer Foundation dedicated
its second "Adenauer Conference" to "Germany's Role in International
Security Policy." The event, in which the Chancellor's foreign policy
advisor, Christoph Heusgen, personally attended, bore the thematic title
"lessons learned from Afghanistan," to then focus on current and future
conflicts - the "arch of crisis from Libya via Syria to Ukraine." "How
can Germany Contribute to Stabilization?," was the question not only
Thomas Bagger, head of Policy Planning in the German Foreign Ministry,
was asked. This was after Géza von Geyr, head of the Policy Section of
the Defense Ministry, had proclaimed that a "stronger disposition toward
security matters" is sorely "needed" and - in this context - called for
a "public discussion on the soft and hard factors of security policy,"
something the foreign policy establishment has been pleading for, since some time. "We are receiving a growing number of responsibilities that we cannot ignore," claims Geyr.[2]
Pacifist Sonderweg? No Thanks!
Just shortly prior to the Adenauer Conference, the Heinrich Boell Foundation had held
its "Annual Foreign Policy Conference," June 19/20. At this conference,
German President Joachim Gauck's initiatives for the expansion of
German military missions had been thoroughly discussed, according to a
conference report. There was wide-ranging consensus that Germany should
"not only enhance its military capability," but that it "should use all
foreign policy tools more decisively," and that "a 'pacifist Sonderweg'"
cannot "be permitted." In view of the widespread popular opposition to a
more aggressive global policy, the conference report explains that
"conference guests pointed to the obviously growing gap between the
'Berlin [government]' and a sizable portion of the German population on
questions of foreign policy."[3] That must be changed. Germany must
"leave the comfort zone," insists the foundation's board member, Ralf
Fuecks.[4]
Violation of International Law? No Problem!
In a supplementary reader to the "Annual Foreign
Policy Conference," the Boell Foundation published papers worth noting.
"German leadership," according to Bodo Weber, a Senior Associate at the
Democratization Policy Council in Berlin, is "possible and makes good
sense." However, it should be noted that "Germany's refusal to take on
its international responsibilities," is a problem of a "lack of
political will and leadership." "Berlin's already small circle of
foreign policy makers and its foreign policy community" should,
therefore, "seek to close ranks regardless of party affiliations and
develop common concepts and initiatives." In addition, Germany must
"take the lead in the revival of a common European foreign and security
policy." In all this, it must be acknowledged that "the United Nations
does not meet the challenges
of the 21st century's global disorder." It must, therefore, be
"accepted that it may become necessary to take action outside the
current international legal framework."[5] Germany has demonstrated this
in 1999 with the war on Yugoslavia.
Parliamentary Approval? Only Gets in the Way!
Jan Techau, Director of the Carnegie Europe, in Brussels, makes concrete proposals in the reader for a more aggressive global
policy. Techau goes beyond calls for a "significant reinforcement" of
the EU's foreign policy and an "expansion of the civilian and military
Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) missions," to demand also a
"radical reformation of the so-called German parliamentary approval
prerequisite." In questions of war and peace, the German Bundestag
should merely be permitted a "right of revocation." The Federal College
for Security Studies in Berlin (BAKS) should be transformed into a
"world-famous strategy school." For "federal 'political' civil
servants," there should be "service career legal stipulations
introduced, requiring training" in military policy think tanks. And
finally, the BAKS should be placed under the auspices of a "National
Security Bureau," an institution to be formed, which - "similar to the
US National Security Council" - should be established within Berlin's
Chancellery. The Ministry of Development should, according to Techau, in
the Green Party foundation's reader, be transferred to the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs while "the German intelligence services are in need of a
significant upgrade of their technical equipment."[6]
To be Continued
The positions taken by Geyr, Weber and Techau,
receiving a larger public resonance, through the party-affiliated
foundations of the CDU and the Greens are simply more evidence that the
campaign for a more aggressive global policy is broadly rooted in
Germany's foreign policy establishment and growing stronger. It is not
to be expected that the elite's campaign to impose its project on the
population will subside.
More reports and background information on Germany's campaign by elite circles to promote a more aggressive German global policy can be found here: Sleeping Demons, The Re-Evaluation of German Foreign Policy, Domination over Europe, The Agenda 2020, The World's Expectations, Germany's Act of Liberation and Hegemon with a Guilty Conscience.
[1] See Die Weltpolitik-Kampagne der Eliten.
[2] "Dichte an sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen". www.kas.de 30.06.2014.
[3] Deutsche Außenpolitik: Auf dem Weg zu mehr Verantwortung? www.boell.de 30.06.2014.
[4] Ralf Fücks: Raus aus der Komfortzone - Deutschland auf dem Weg zu mehr internationaler Verantwortung? www.boell.de 23.06.2014.
[5] Bodo Weber: Deutschlands außen- und sicherheitspolitische Verweigerung. Reader zur 15. Außenpolitischen Jahrestagung der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Berlin, Juni 2014.
[6] Jan Techau: Zu Europa und Westbindung bekennen! Reader zur 15. Außenpolitischen Jahrestagung der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Berlin, Juni 2014.
[2] "Dichte an sicherheitspolitischen Herausforderungen". www.kas.de 30.06.2014.
[3] Deutsche Außenpolitik: Auf dem Weg zu mehr Verantwortung? www.boell.de 30.06.2014.
[4] Ralf Fücks: Raus aus der Komfortzone - Deutschland auf dem Weg zu mehr internationaler Verantwortung? www.boell.de 23.06.2014.
[5] Bodo Weber: Deutschlands außen- und sicherheitspolitische Verweigerung. Reader zur 15. Außenpolitischen Jahrestagung der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Berlin, Juni 2014.
[6] Jan Techau: Zu Europa und Westbindung bekennen! Reader zur 15. Außenpolitischen Jahrestagung der Heinrich-Böll-Stiftung. Berlin, Juni 2014.
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