The intensifying contradictions among imperialist countries – The
danger of World War III
The Central Banks of all countries of the world including the US and
Europe are changing financial policies and raising interest rates. The
governments failed in solving problems such as over-production, inflation, high
prices, unemployment and degeneration of living conditions that cropped up
due to policies of imperialist globalisation and are trying to reduce inflation by
limiting supply of money. But if hike in interest rates continues in this manner,
economic activities slow down. This will lower economic growth, GDP and per
capita income. This is intensifying economic crisis in the whole world. COVID
pandemic added to this situation since 2020. The 500 MNCs of the world are
facing problems due to burden of loans. Several countries are in the mire of
heavy loans. The burden of loan in the world was 226 lakh crore dollars by the
end of 2020 and by the third quarter of 2022 it reached 290 trillion dollars. The
US is looting natural wealth and markets of other countries to overcome its
economic crisis, making wars of aggression on other countries, constantly
instigating war in the world and selling arms in spite of which it is unable to
overcome the economic crisis. By 2022 December, inflation reached 40 year
record in the US. While its foreign debt was at 5.8 trillion dollars by 2000, it
crossed 30 trillion dollars by the end of 2021. US loan amounts to 70 percent of
its GDP. US is now the country of maximum loans. In this background, the MNCsof US and Europe are planning to shift to their own countries from China and
other backward countries. Due to all these reasons, none of the governments in
the world are in a position to face and solve the would be intensifying economic
crisis.
Contradictions among the imperialists are intensifying in its bid to solve
the crisis by all means, to exploit the natural resources, to loot cheap labour
force and to take over markets of the backward countries and for areas of
influence. Collaboration and contention continued in the implementation of
imperialist globalisation. Currently, contention for re-division of the world
intensified between the imperialist countries and those countries are forming
war alliances and intensifying preparations for war.
Since Joe Biden came to power in 2020 November, he intensified
attempts to regain the status of super power and to give a blow to its contending
imperialist countries China and Russia. After World War II, US established 750
military bases in above 80 countries all over the world. Indo-Pacific Command
was formed during the tenure of Trump in 2017 to fight China. Military alliance
QUAD (Quadrilateral Security Dialogue) formed in 2007 including US, Japan,
Australia and India was activated since 2017. The first summit of QUAD countries
took place in 2021 March. Since then it had been actively working against China.
Another military alliance AUKUS (Australia, United Kingdom and US) was formed
in 2021 September 15th to face Russia and China. After stepping out of
Afghanistan, another military alliance named QUAD-2 or West Asian alliance was
formed comprising of US, Israel, UAE and India on 18th October 2021 to stop and
contain the increasing influence of China, Russia, Turkey and Iran in West Asia.
Russian imperialism overcame its economic weaknesses, increased its
already existing military strength and started contending with the US for re-
division of the world as a strong force. In the process, it is exporting oil, natural
gas and wheat to West European countries including East European countries
and could sustain those as its commercial partners. This affected the economic
and strategic interests of the US in Europe. At the same time China rose as a
social-imperialist country and became a contender to the US in all sectors. In this
situation, the US withdrew ‘war on terrorism’ in view of its economic, military,
geo-political importance and decided to contend and if necessary, to make warwith China and Russia since the end of 2020. We have to understand the
Ukraine-Russia war and the tensions between China and US regarding Taiwan as
a part of this.
In order to enclose Russia, US started to expand NATO into East
European countries and as a part of it into Ukraine by 2010 itself. Finland and
Sweden joined NATO in 2022 March through which it could go one step forward
in surrounding Russia in the Baltic sea. Both US and Russia were trying to
establish its puppet government in Ukraine. The puppet of US and NATO
Zelensky elected as the President of Ukraine in 2019 held consultations with
both European Union and US for membership in EU and NATO. Russia made a
defence agreement with China on 4th February 2022 stating that their security is
affected due to the policies of US-NATO in utilising Ukraine as a bait. Russia
initiated its war of aggression on Ukraine on 24th February 2022 after this
agreement.
The war is going on for the past 13 months and reached to a dangerous
level. Thousands of soldiers on both sides and people of Ukraine died or suffered
injuries in this war. Lack of coordination caused heavy losses to Russian army
and it could not achieve progress in war. On the other hand, Russia is facing
resistance from its people especially the families of deceased soldiers. Ukraine
started counter-offensive war in 2022 August with the partnership of military
advisers along with tonnes of modern arms, war material, training and
intelligence provided by all the NATO countries including US so as to seize the
land that Russia occupied in east and south Ukraine. Russia mobilised forces in
full level to suppress the counter-offensive of Ukraine and intensified attacks. It
utilised combat drones for attacks and information. Thus, war intensified in east
Ukraine and there was stagnation in war all through winter for almost 6 months.
War is once again intensifying with the onset of summer.
The US-NATO countries have been aiding Ukraine economically, in arms
and technological training and other such forms much before the war. Once war
started, those countries are directly providing support. However, these
countries do not tolerate China’s help to Russia. Those countries are ready to
impose economic sanctions on China and the countries that obtain help fromChina. Of late, Biden held special talks with Jing-ping to contain the support of
China to Russia.
While on one hand economic crisis is intensifying in the whole world
apart from the two countries due to effect of Russia-Ukraine war, on the other
hand, US is indulging in acts of instigating China. China states that since Taiwan
is integral to it, US representatives must not visit without its approval. Speaker
of US representatives Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan on 3rd August 2022 was a
violation of this warning. On this occasion, after she met the President of Taiwan
Tsai Ingven, Pelosi told media personnel that they will not leave Taiwan alone in
the current conditions, that the support of US is utmost vital to this country and
that they shall stand in support of autonomy of Taiwan. This is against the ‘One
China’ policy that United Nations approved and the US and China jointly
approved. Thus, Taiwan became the centre point of conflict between China and
US.
Taiwan is producing 60 percent of semi-conductors (computer chips) of
the world with the support of investments of US mega IT Companies, supply of
raw material and market support from US. Taiwan is until now in the control of
US. China’s control on it causes heavy loss to US economy. Therefore, US is trying
to separate Taiwan from China and make its ally, to contain and encircle China
that is developing in all sectors in the world and became a strong contender to
it and to make Taiwan a part of its Asia-Pacific, geo-political strategy. It provided
arms worth ten billion dollars to Taiwan in the past 5 years. It warned that if
China forcibly merges Taiwan, it shall explode all the chip factories of the
country. It is going to provide defence material worth 100 crore dollars or
military training per annum to Taiwan with the authority provided in National
Defence Authority Act-2023. China expressed severe protest to the Act. On the
other hand, instead of paying importance to solve unitarization of Taiwan in a
peaceful and harmonious manner, China is making military preparations. Anti-
China war frenzy actions of US are pushing the world on to the verge of war. We
must condemn the various alliances formed in the leadership of US to affect and
hegemonise the sovereignty and regional comprehensiveness of Asia-Pacific
regional coastal countries apart from China sea against China and theintervention of US in the internal affairs of China. We must condemn the
aggressiveness of imperialist China on Taiwan. We must fight for world peace.
Indo-Pacific area is prospective for manufacturing, growth of trade and
commerce and has abundant new material including natural resources, labour
force, especially skilled and semi-skilled. The area is utmost vital in view of
economy, population and geo-political strategic importance. Therefore, it
became another important centre for contention of imperialists for world
hegemony including East Europe.
The world economic crisis that began in 2008 is intensifying and in this
situation, all kinds of attempts of all countries for the past 15 years to solve it
were in vain. Now the imperialist countries are contending for re-division of
world and are making large scale preparations for war.
The preparations for war include heavy rise in defence and war related
science-research budgets in all imperialist countries. US allotted 858 billion
dollars in 2023. US is in the first place in international arms trade with a share of
37 percent. In the background of Ukraine war, China rose its defence budget by
7.1 percent. The defence expenditure of China currently rose to 225 billion
dollars. According to statistics of SIPRI, China is the 5th biggest arms exporter
after US, Russia, France and Germany. Russia had a defence budget of 60.6 US
billion dollars in 2020, Britain 61.5, Germany 51.3, France 55 and Japan 49.7.
Apart from the imperialist countries, backward countries such as India, Saudi
Arabia, Iran, South Korea and Brazil heavily increased its defence budget and are
enhancing its military strength and abilities with ultra-modern technology and
arms. Imperialist countries are making different kinds of war manoeuvres of
conventional war and anti-insurgency every year together with its allies.
The military forces of 30 European countries in NATO in the leadership
of US are four times larger than the Russian military forces. US is in the first place
in military force followed by Russia and China. Modernisation of armies of
imperialist countries reached its zenith in these preparations. Imperialist armies
are concentrating more on cyber sector. These armies are efficiently integrating
defensive and offensive cyber operations including cyber intelligence,
surveillance, reconnaissance, kinetic strike efficiency and developing modern
war management systems. US joint war fighting concept, Britain new integratedoperating concept came forth. The data flow of cyber space relayed by satellites
combines Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence,
Surveillance, Reconnaissance (C4ISR) and is taking information warfare to new
heights.
90 percent of nuclear arms in the world are centralised in US and Russia.
These arms can destruct the world several times. According to a report of SIPRI,
US has 5,428, Russia 5,977, China 350, Britain and France 500 nuclear arms by
2022. US had been trying to develop an utmost dangerous nuclear arms system
namely Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) for the past one decade.
Russia and China also are developing this kind of arms systems. This brought
forth an utmost dangerous situation in the world.
Since the Ukraine war, US provided ten thousand crore dollars of aid to
Ukraine by 2022 July. It later also sent military packages several times. Ukraine
purchased arms from US private arms companies Lockheed Martin, Raytheon
and other such companies and the biggest arms company of Europe BAE in a big
way. These companies are minting super profits through this war.
Ukraine-Russia war is the result of intense conflict of US with its
contending imperialist countries Russia and China in its economic and political
interests for world hegemony. US lost its status of super power and ‘multipolar
world’ came into existence and so, US started to challenge it. This is a proxy war
between NATO countries in the leadership of US and Russia. NATO forces are
participating on behalf of Ukraine directly and indirectly. The mercenary armies
of both sides are also participating in this war. So, it is also a Regional war. The
war made by Ukraine army in the name of resisting Russian aggression is in fact
made by NATO countries in the leadership of US. US is conspiring to prolong the
war. It is disallowing Ukraine for peace talks and making all sorts of attempts to
see that war lasts long. US-NATO openly declared its ill intention to suffocate
Russia in war, cripple down its economic, military strength and efficiencies and
see that it does not contend with it. The blast of Nord Stream Gas pipe line in
2022 September by US intelligence organisations as per the instructions of Biden
is a part of this scheme. On completion of one year of Ukraine war, Biden went
to Ukraine in the end of 2023 February and instigated it by declaring a heavy
military package. On the other hand, Russia is continuing the war with theobjective to gain total hegemony on Black Sea, on the oil resources of Crimea
and mineral wealth in Donbass. US-NATO adopted a dangerous strategy to close
doors for peace talks and prolong the war. This is rising tensions between the
two sides. These might lead to World War III at any time. On the other hand,
tensions are rising between China and US on Taiwan issue and might lead to war
between the two countries. It might start as a regional war and turn into World
War. Thus, the danger of World War III is rising and world peace is falling in a big
danger.
After the 2008 crisis, especially national liberation, democratic and
revolutionary movements are going on in the backward countries, working class
struggles are intensifying in capitalist-imperialist countries and environment
protection movements all over the world for the past three years. These
struggles might transform into a new spate of revolution all over the world.
These people’s struggles and revolutions might contain the danger of World War
III. Or else, if the people’s struggles and the spate of revolution do not gain the
strength to the extent of containing the danger, WW III might start and
revolutions might arise. However, as great Mao said in 1970s, ‘World War might
come and revolutions might arise, spate of revolution might contain World War.
Revolution is the main trend in the current time’. This situation once again came
forth now.
Capitalism unleashed liberal policies to control the capitalist market
until it transformed into imperialism and World War II ended. This failed to solve
the economic crisis and, in this situation, it unleashed Keynesian policies where
the government itself controls the market. This too failed in solving the
economic crises and so, it is unleashing monetarist policies since mid-1980s
where capital itself controls the market. These are the policies of imperialist
globalisation. When globalisation policies also failed to solve imperialist crisis, it
is once again making preparations for World War. Basing on this situation, the
world proletariat and its vanguard Communist Parties must decide their stand.
They must fight against the danger of World War III basing on the following
program –
1. Both sides of Ukraine-Russia war must unconditionally stop war. They
must solve the problems that arose between them according to the regulations
of United Nations Organisation.
2. US must immediately stop the expansion of NATO alliance. It must
also dissolve NATO, QUAD, AUKUS, West Asia and other alliances of war. It must
dissolve the Indo-Pacific Command. It must withdraw its military bases spread
around the world.
3. US must immediately put a stop to anti-China war frenzy actions in
Taiwan issue. China must solve unitarization of their country in peaceful
methods. China must end militarism in this regard.
4. The defence agreement between China and Russia must be dissolved.
All kinds of military alliances and defence agreements between imperialist
countries and regional expansionist countries must be dissolved.
5. All nuclear countries of the world must destroy their nuclear arms.
and must implement Non-Proliferation treaties.
6. We must fight against the danger of World War and for world peace
with the slogans such as ‘not war, we want peace’, ‘World War III is a major
danger to the entire humankind of the world and the earth’.
7. All the countries including the imperialist countries must immediately
stop preparations of war.
8. If the imperialists reject the aspirations of the people of the world and
indulge in World War III, the world proletariat (the current situation is that
where there is no socialist camp and even a single country is not working as a
base for the world proletariat) must initiate to transform the ‘war into civil war’
as per the balance of forces of the world proletariat, without falling into national
frenzy. It must demonstrate revolutionary proletarian internationalism against
war.
9. We must take up wide political campaigns so as to see that the entire
oppressed people including the proletariat in backward countries and capitalist-
imperialist countries of the world do not fall into national frenzy. If the world
proletariat falls into ideological ill influence brought forth by the exploitive ruling
classes in the name of ‘protection of motherland’, it will split into two and turn
scape goats in the war of the imperialists and their compradors in the backwardcountries. We must enlighten them that neither the proletariat nor the
oppressed people can achieve anything out of it. ‘Proletariat of the world,
oppressed people unite, bring down the imperialist exploitive system’ must be
the slogan of the proletariat.
10. The lives of the world proletariat, oppressed nationalities and
oppressed people is becoming miserable due to the current economic crisis and
preparations of imperialist war. Basing on this, the world proletariat must form
revolutionary communist parties with the objective of New Democratic
Revolution against the exploitive ruling classes in the backward countries and
must begin class struggle-guerrilla war with proper perspective and proper
orientation basing on the concrete conditions in the respective countries. The
ongoing ones must be widened-intensified. Revolutionary Trade Unions and
Communist parties must be formed with a proper perspective and proper
orientation even in capitalist-imperialist countries, strengthen the existing ones
and intensify the proletarian struggles with the objective of socialist revolution.
11. The only way to bring world peace is to eliminate the capitalist-
imperialist system and establish Socialist-Communist system. So, we have to
form a united Communist International forum basing on proper theoretical,
political stands so as to contribute to unitedly lead the proletariat and middle
class in capitalist countries and the oppressed nationalities and people of the
backward countries in International Communist Movement
